TEHRAN – Heinz Gartner, professor of political science at the University of Vienna, has told the Tehran Times that reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal will contribute to stability.

The professor said this is one reason why every party to the nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), want a deal.

“Every party to the deal wants a deal, there is no one who says we don’t want a deal, no one, including Iran, U.S., Europeans, China, Russia. They all say they want a deal. They all have benefits if you have a deal,” the professor said. 

Following is the second part of the full text of the interview the Tehran Times had with Professor Gartner:

Q: Can the U.S. offer guarantees that the nuclear deal won’t be jettisoned again?

A: Actually, the Iranian Foreign Minister at the Munich security conference suggested that the Speakers of the House would give some guarantees. Somehow this suggestion disappeared. But now in this new Borrell proposal there is a suggestion that there will be a vote in the congress with a simple majority and that would give the agreement some congressional support. If there is no simple majority, still the president could veto this. So it gets some legitimacy. Of course, the next president could step out, but it would be legitimacy and it would be not that easy politically for the next president to leave it because it has congressional support and congress supported it at the time. At the same time, there are these proposals that there could be long term contracts with companies that are supported by the government, somehow, with some guarantees for the governments which go beyond the next president. They can make contracts with Iran and US companies contract with Iran and European Union companies. So these are possibilities. To get a 100 percent guarantee, is not possible. So, I know that Iran is using it as a negotiation tactic as well, but the Iranians know about the political system in the US and know there has to be some flexibility and some compromise. So, I do think these guarantees are not really the biggest obstacle anymore; I don’t think so. 

Q: So, what is the real obstacle? If we assume that it is a negotiating tactic. So, what is the real obstacle to reaching a deal?  

A: The real obstacle is domestic. It fell victim to domestic politics. I would say so. President Biden is not strong enough. So, he is afraid of the domestic opposition which is very strong. Also with his own party, not only the Republicans. And he doesn’t want to have a debate, Iran debate is in Congress before the elections either. And he was hesitant because it was not such on a high priority for him so he delayed it and delayed it and delayed it all the time and now we are here. But we know also we have a debate within Iran as well. So you have the domestic debate here as well. So, there might be some opposition here as well in Iran. And so, it’s a domestic issue. And we have the issue of Israel of course. And there is the issue of Israel. And Israel, of course, influences the US opposition. We know this. There is no secret about it, that Israel is not part of the agreement but has influence in the US as well. These are real obstacles. 

Q: So, we keep hearing about this harsh winter, this is impending in Europe. Your neighboring country Switzerland has issued some precautionary measures. What do the people of Europe think about this upcoming winter and do they really feel the need for energy supply from outside? You know that Qatar has made some efforts to actually provide energy to Europe. And there has been talk of Iran trying to supply energy to Europe. So, what is your prediction? And what do the Europeans, European ordinary people, think of this impending winter? And do you think Europe needs Iranian oil and gas?

A: It’s part of the Borrell Text. The Europeans feel some pressure to get additional energy resources. I think that was part of the Borrell initiative definitely, but the Europeans now try everywhere to get some resources. They all are much more expensive, most of them. Norway, American LGP gas, then they have to get a little bit from Azerbaijan which is not a real democracy. So, they say the (resources) are full about 85 percent. So, in terms of supply, they come in the winter. But it will be more expensive. It would be more expensive and we have the additional energy resources cost and energy companies will use this to increase the prices on energy. So poor people will suffer and some companies will also suffer, because they also have this emergency plan that the companies have to limit energy consumption. So, some companies might close down and there will be more unemployment. But Europe will come to the winter, so it will be difficult, inflation, poor people will suffer, some companies will suffer and the Iran deal, as I said would be the best, one of the very good solutions to compensators, but as we discussed before, there is these political reasons and energy is not the only driving force here. 

Q: You said that President Biden is more focused on domestic politics than international issues, especially with respect to the JCPOA. Do you think that he does not want to sign the JCPOA because he fears the political fallouts from signing the JCPOA?

A: He hesitates and delays.

Q: Do you think that would continue after the mid-terms? What will happen after the mid-terms? 

A: that’s a good question. There is the real danger that it would be delayed until the next presidential elections and until the end of the next presidency. And we won’t have a deal for the next six years. Yes because the next president if it becomes a Republican, we won’t have a deal as well. So, it goes two years and then the next president, the JCPOA will be not the first thing that he wants to do in foreign policy. So, if it is a Democrat it might be easier than the Republican, if it’s a Republican, we won’t have a deal anyway. Under the president after the next one. So, it would be a disaster I tell you. It’s a very good question, it easily can happen. So, and not denying it, I am a strong supporter of the JCPOA, but if it would be implemented, that’s possible, it’s possible. 

Q: Let’s ask you about the future of the deal, assuming that the deal would be signed. You know, the JCPOA was implemented for two years and it was in trouble for four years now. So, if they return to the deal, will it hold up?

A: Of course, aside from these political intricacies we talked about, let me say, it’s almost the final word. Every party to the deal wants a deal, there is no one who says we don’t want a deal, no one, including Iran, U.S., Europeans, China, and Russia. They all say they want a deal. They all have benefits if you have a deal. So, there will be better trade with the European Union, it will improve Iran’s economy with sanctions relief, it will take out the fear about the threat of nuclear proliferation, especially when it comes to the Americans and the Europeans, we will have more stability. And I would even argue, maybe some would say not, it will be the basis for regional cooperation, and you have more regional stability. So, if it takes this, it would be logical to have a deal and it would be logical that it would be sustained. Of course, then you have these political intricacies, you have Israel opposing this; you have political opposition, they don’t think that way.

Let me say one word which is very difficult to understand for me it’s a more general, basic point. Right? Why there is so much negative speaking between the US and Iran? The Americans always say it’s a hostage crisis. So, the hostage humiliated them. There was no casualty in the hostage crisis. It was bad for the Americans of course. But if you look, for example, at Vietnam, with the Vietnam war 60,000 American casualties. And in 1995, the Americans resumed diplomatic relations with Vietnam. Vietnam is still a communist country.

Vietnam is not a Jeffersonian democracy. But they have got relations. And there was almost no foreign minister of the last American presidents or vice presidents who did not visit Vietnam. Of course, it’s about China, because they want to have it. But still I had the idea the best thing President Biden should do is that big step, to resume or start diplomatic relations with Iran. Then you have all these details, these more questions that would be easier to resolve. You have embassies, you have dual communications, you avoid misunderstandings, you decrease prejudices. So, I think that would be the best thing for President Biden.